Is It Worth Doing
A need being real doesn't mean it's worth doing. Between real and worth-it sit three numbers: how many people, how often they hit it, and how much it hurts each time.
What you'll run into
- 需求都是真的，但做完发现没什么人碰
- 为一个季度用一次的场景做了很复杂的功能
- 不知道该先做哪个，最后按谁提的来排
Three dimensions
| 维度 | 怎么问出来 | 它影响什么 |
|---|---|---|
| 人数 | 符合这个描述的人有多少 | 决定天花板。人数少但付费高，也能成立 |
| 频率 | 最近两次分别是什么时候 | 决定能不能养成习惯，也决定留存 |
| 痛感 | 那次没做好，后果是什么 | 决定他愿不愿意付钱，以及愿意付多少 |
Do a rough calculation
It doesn't need to be precise—order of magnitude is enough. The point of this rough math is to turn "feels important" into a number that can be challenged.
目标人群 5 万 个小微商家
其中有这个问题的约 30%
每周遇到 2 次，每次半小时
愿意付 ¥30/月 的约一成
1500 付费用户 · 年收 54 万
目标人群 很多人
大家应该都有这个问题
偶尔会遇到
应该有人愿意付费
这不是估算，是愿望
When to cut
- If any of the three numbers is near zero, cut it. Don't count on the other two making it up — a zero in a product can't be offset.
- If you can't size it, don't build it yet. Not being able to size it means you don't know this group well enough; building now is just gambling.
- If only one person has raised it, hold off. Put it in the pool and wait for the second person. When the second one shows up, it's not an isolated case.
- High-frequency, low-pain stuff shouldn't be expected to bring in money. Its value is in retention — keeping people coming back. The money has to be collected elsewhere.