The product lifecycle
Before deciding whether something is worth doing, ask which stage the product is in. The same feature is noise during exploration and essential during maturity.
What you will run into
- 产品还没几个用户，就在做分享裂变和积分体系
- 用户涨得很快，团队还在打磨一个没人抱怨的细节
- 盯着一堆指标，但不知道现在最该看哪一个
Where each stage focuses
| 阶段 | 唯一要回答的问题 | 该看的指标 | 这时候别做的事 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 探索期 | 有没有一小撮人非用不可 | 留存，尤其是次周留存 | 投放、裂变、大改版 |
| 成长期 | 怎么让同类人更快找到你 | 获客成本、激活率 | 为小众诉求做定制功能 |
| 成熟期 | 怎么留住并且赚到钱 | 付费转化、续费、客单价 | 推倒重做核心流程 |
| 衰退期 | 是维持收着，还是转个方向 | 流失原因、维护成本 | 大投入抢救老功能 |
How to tell which stage you are in
Do not look at time elapsed or raw user count. Read these three signals.
The cost of misalignment
- Chasing growth during exploration. You burn through the budget, and the users who stick around are still the same few. This is the most common mistake among solo developers.
- Polishing during growth. The window is only a few months wide. While you're adjusting spacing, competitors take the whole market.
- Rebuilding during maturity. Touch the core flow once and every existing user's habit breaks — the revenue curve reacts immediately.
- Rescuing during decline. Big investments rarely bring back a product that's already retreating. That money earns far more pointed at a new direction.
If you are building solo, you spend most of your time in exploration. That means your default move should be: cut scope, find the small group that cannot live without it, and watch whether they come back next week.