One North Star
Pick one metric to represent the product getting better; treat the rest as reference. The more metrics you watch, the easier it is to find a number going up in every weekly report and convince yourself everything is fine.
What you'll run into
- 周报上十个指标有涨有跌，看完还是不知道这个月到底做得怎么样
- 两个方案争不出高下，因为一个能提日活，另一个能提留存，谁也说不服谁
- 指标涨了，但没人说得清是产品变好了，还是刚好做了一轮投放
- 年底复盘，大家各自挑对自己有利的那个数来讲
Four conditions
A number can be the North Star only if it meets all four. Miss one and at some point it will lead the team astray.
- It stands for value the user actually received. Not "showed up" — "received." Signup, visit, click — those are just passing through. Completing a real task is what counts.
- You can move it this quarter. Do one thing and see the number change within two weeks. A number you can't move is scenery, not a steering wheel.
- It leads revenue, not follows it. Revenue is an outcome — slow to react, and drowned out by promotions and seasonality. The North Star should tell you in advance where revenue is heading.
- It can't be gamed, and the whole team understands it. Explainable in one sentence, impossible to inflate by slicing pages or massaging definitions. A metric nobody understands won't drive daily decisions.
| 看起来很像北极星 | 问题出在哪 | 换成这个 |
|---|---|---|
| 注册用户数 | 注册完再没回来的人也计入，投放一开就涨 | 完成首个核心任务的人数 |
| 页面浏览量 | 把一页拆成三页就能翻倍，跟价值无关 | 有效使用时长或完成率 |
| 日活 | 推送能短期拉起来，掩盖真实流失 | 每周使用 3 天以上的用户数 |
| GMV | 大促和补贴的影响远大于产品改动 | 复购用户数 / 下单转化率 |
How different products pick
| 产品类型 | 常见的北极星 | 它在赌什么 |
|---|---|---|
| 内容社区 | 每周产生有效互动的用户数 | 互动带来关系，关系带来留存 |
| 工具类 | 每周完成 N 次核心动作的用户数 | 形成习惯的人不会走 |
| 电商 | 复购用户数 | 买第二次的人才是真用户 |
| B 端 SaaS | 周活跃席位数 | 真在用的人多，续约就稳 |
| 早期产品 | 第二周还回来的人数 | 先验证有没有人真的需要 |
Guardrail metrics
There is only one North Star, but you cannot watch only it. Pair it with two or three guardrail metrics: they do not have to go up, they just cannot collapse. North Star up, guardrail down — that round does not count as a win.
北极星
完成首个任务的人数
+18%
护栏
次月留存
持平
护栏
客诉率
+140%
护栏
首屏加载时长
持平
北极星涨了 18%，但客诉翻了一倍多：多半是引导用力过猛，把人骗进了流程
Building solo
For a solo builder or a very small team, the North Star should be even more ruthless: pick a number you can glance at first thing every morning and immediately know what to do today.
- 刚上线的阶段，选「这周第二次回来的人数」。绝对值很小没关系，从 3 变成 8 也是信号。它能最快告诉你有没有人真的需要。
- 不要选累计数。累计注册、累计发布这类只会涨不会跌的数，看着舒服，但从来不会告诉你出问题了。
- 写下来，贴在能看见的地方。包括这个数今天是多少、你希望三个月后是多少。
- 先埋点，再谈北极星。没有数据来源的北极星只是一句口号，参见先埋点后上线。